Preview coming out on Bedrock. So not sure this is true any longer. Im awaiting further details.

EDIT: AWS said Anthropic’s Claude Mythos is now available through Amazon Bedrock as a gated research preview focused on cybersecurity, with access initially limited to allow listed organizations such as internet-critical companies and open-source maintainers.

Basically, realized vol is lower than implied vol over time. Yes.

also people overpay for skew protection and you can make consistent money selling skews (until that one time it blows up on you)

This is a "wishful thinking" take that ignores a brutal reality: AI isn’t just a tool; it’s raising the cognitive floor for employment. We are rapidly approaching a point where the baseline IQ required to contribute at all will surpass the capabilities of a huge segment of the population. And that floor is rising.

You can already see the decoupling: Mag7 hiring has flatlined while their AI capex hits the moon. Even the "brightest minds" are being replaced by the hardware they built. No amount of policy or interest rate maneuvering can stop this shift because you can't legislate away the fact that human labor is becoming an inferior good.

The assumption that this shift can be evenly distributed and broadly wiped away via policy tools is asinine.

This time IS different.

Sidenote: This is exactly why I’m so bullish on risk assets—we are transitioning into an economy where capital no longer needs to drag the weight of a massive, increasingly "useless" workforce, and the policy responses will actually exacerbate the shift (ie. rates down on unemployment = assets up)

I think you're right. I think that a majority of people, including myself, will be generally unemployable soon.

I'm early career and have a few hundred thousand dollars I can deploy. What's the best way to invest?

I'd invest in whatever is profitable when the unemployed masses burn these data centers to the ground, like fire trucks.

I'd also invest in companies that make rope.

Sort of agree with this but I do find it amusing that this sort of take on it implicitly discounts that the capital still has to live with all these “useless” people on the same rock, whose numbers will grow to an unignorable amount...The idea that anything will be insulated is for the fairies and seems just as asinine to me

The irony of this SHOW HN is that "just roll your own" was the classic OG critique of Dropbox before they took the space rocket to unicorn land.

Depending on anyone for anything is gambling.

Not that it is particularly relevant to agentic coding but how can anyone truly argue streaming costs more? Average cable packages were exceeding 125-150 USD a month (in 2000 dollars). Under no circumstances would I be sympathetic to the argument that streaming costs more.

You can get all 7 of the major streaming subs for less without even shopping out deals. That is 100s of times the volume and quality of content that was delivered on cable for far less. It is so much content realistically that no one I have ever met has subscribed to all of them at once.

The argument really is empty. The fragmentized experience is annoying, but it isn't more expensive...And it DEFINITELY has fewer ads.

I'm in central europe, atm 70 TV channels is $15/month.

The best part about it is his rollercoaster the Quadrupler would have been much more fun than Big Thunder Mountain Railroad.

It doesn’t even go upside down once, let alone 4 times

But it does have a goat chewing dynamite.

...which is a niche problem looking for a niche solution.

This is such a bad faith, and frankly dishonest take on the situation.

As you know, Khan’s FTC worried it wouldn’t be able to prevent Amazon’s acquisition of iRobot in court, so instead it dragged out approval, which it never granted, while continuously threatening to block.

Simultaneously, her FTC openly worked with the EU to convince the EU to use its more expansive antitrust regime to get the EU to block the deal. That dragged the shot clock for the deal lower and lower (deals have backend dates contractually agreed to, after which the parties no longer are committed to work towards closing the deal and can walk).

Even as the EU was challenging the deal and the shot clock was approaching zero, her FTC was STILL not granting approval and threatened to block and drag it out another year in U.S. courts, all the way until Amazon threw in the towel.

After the deal collapsed, the FTC celebrated and took credit.

The fact iRobot later failed and was sold to Chinese competitors is directly attributable to that block, as it would otherwise be owned and supported by Amazon right now.

The point is that "sold to Amazon" or "sold to chinese competitors" being the only options is a false narrative. There was also the "do a good job" option which is being conveniently omitted by people who want to blame the FTC.

If we’re arguing about strategic decisions made a decade ago in this context, aren’t we really arguing about whether any company should ever fail?

This is Matt Stoller throwing a bunch of dust in the air because he wants to have been right when he was glad Khan shut down the merger, and then right again when the husk of iRobot sold out to the Chinese. Because Matt is always right, and “Wall Street” is always wrong.

That's only an option if the FTC can rewind time. Can they?

er? No we are talking about the attribution of blame. If you're saying "what a shame that iRobot is being sold to Chinese competitors" and then you "...because of the FTC" you're essentially lying; it's because of incompetence and capitalism and then also maybe a little bit the FTC (although I'm very skeptical of that as well, because in this whole narrative the FTC is the only party that can be even claimed to be acting prosocially).

People focus on the FTC because not blocking struggling companies from merging seems a lot more tractable than revamping capitalism or stopping humans from making business mistakes.

iRobot was (arguably) mismanaged just like Spirit Airlines or Warner Bros, but I'd appreciate if the FTC didn't make the matter worse.

That's not what a good job is

I mean, read the article? That's what it's about.

...except it's not.

> The fact iRobot later failed and was sold to Chinese competitors is directly attributable to that block, as it would otherwise be owned and supported by Amazon right now

...or "owned and neglected by Amazon right now". I'm not confident Amazon can maintain their IoT stuff adequately. Take their Alexa stuff. They have been having large problems with the Alexa mobile apps for months now.

For example the device list often shows up as either empty or the devices say an error occurred if you try to use them. Sometimes repeatedly trying will finally succeed and then they all work at least until next time you use the app.

The back end knows about the devices, and you can operate them all by voice just fine, through the app or an Echo device, so it looks like they just screwed up something in the app.

When I first hit this it wasn't working for so long that I assumed it must be a problem just affecting me because if it was widespread surely they would have fixed it. Eventually I described it to an LLM and it gave me links to a whole bunch of discussion on Reddit and other forums of people having the same problem, spanning something like the last year.

The Chinese company buying them is a robot vacuum company, and was already a manufacturer and supplier for iRobot. As it currently stands I'm more confident that they can keep my Roomba working than Amazon can.

This is spot on to my experience vibe coding. You can get pretty good scaffolding but tinkering with details is a nightmare. That is when you need to step in and take over yourself or you will burn all the time saved from the the scaffolding speed up.